The role of dynamic modelling in drug abuse epidemiology

Policy makers need information to describe and understand a situation involving problematic drug use, follow trends over time, design appropriate interventions and evaluate the results of the action taken. Monitoring drug use and drug problems involves complex information, based mostly on observational data and epidemiological indicators. Dynamic models can be used to generate estimates where data are sparse or to verify hypotheses or predict trends by means of “what if” scenario analyses. The simple act of building a model forces a researcher to make explicit statements about the process being studied, which usually leads to discussion and improved insight. The models that can be used effectively in the drug field are essentially models of epidemics that describe the spread of a disease in a population in order to provide evidence for public health-oriented interventions and policies. One such model proposed recently to reflect the spread of drug use in a population is described in the present article and used to demonstrate the potential of that approach.